Ruto Emerges Top Presidential Choice as Sifuna Outperforms Oburu in ODM Popularity

A new opinion poll by Kenyan research firm TIFA Research places President William Ruto ahead in the early stages of the 2027 presidential race, with 24 percent of respondents backing him.

The survey, conducted between 2 and 11 May 2026, shows Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in second place with 19 percent support, followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 14 percent. Edwin Sifuna received 10 percent, while Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua polled 9 per cent.

According to TIFA, Ruto’s support has risen steadily over the past year, increasing from the teens to nearly a quarter of the electorate. The number of undecided voters has also fallen to 15 percent, indicating that more Kenyans are beginning to settle on preferred candidates. 

However, the poll notes that the absence of a united opposition candidate continues to leave the race open. Regional voting patterns remain a major factor in the contest. Ruto records his strongest support in Northern Kenya at 48 percent and in Nyanza at 41 per cent. Kalonzo dominates Lower Eastern with 78 percent support, while Matiang’i performs best in Nyanza at 27 percent. 

Gachagua’s strongest backing comes from the Mt Kenya region, where he polls 23 percent. The survey also highlights divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement. Among ODM supporters, 73 percent favour the Linda Mwananchi faction led by Sifuna, compared with 24 percent who support the Oburu Oginga-led Linda Ground group. 

TIFA says the results point to stronger support for an opposition approach that is seen as more independent from government.