Moses Kuria Predicts Run-Off in 2027 Presidential Election

Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has predicted that Kenya’s 2027 presidential election will go to a run-off.

Kuria, who now leads the Chama cha Kazi party and previously served as Senior Economic Advisor to President William Ruto, says the growing number of serious presidential contenders signals a shift towards a more competitive and pluralistic political environment. He links this development to the maturing of Kenya’s multi-party democracy, suggesting that no single candidate is likely to achieve the constitutional threshold required for an outright win in the first round.

According to Article 138(4) of the 2010 Constitution, a presidential candidate must secure more than 50 percent of total valid votes cast and at least 25 percent of the vote in at least 24 counties to be declared the winner in the first round. These requirements are intended to ensure both a national majority and broad geographic representation.

President Ruto, who narrowly won in 2022 with 50.49 percent of the vote, is expected to seek a second term. However, several high-profile politicians have already indicated their intention to run, raising the possibility of a more fragmented race. Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has publicly announced his interest in the presidency, while Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka has confirmed his candidacy.

Martha Karua, a long-standing political figure and former Azimio deputy presidential candidate, is also expected to play a significant role, either as a candidate or coalition leader. Other individuals reportedly preparing to enter the race include former Chief Justice David Maraga, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, and civil rights activist Boniface Mwangi.

The evolving opposition landscape includes multiple potential candidates such as Eugene Wamalwa and Mumias East MP Peter Salasya. Raila Odinga, who has contested five previous elections, has not confirmed whether he will run, endorse another candidate, or support the current administration.

Kuria’s projection of a run-off also reflects concerns over the readiness of Kenya’s electoral institutions. Earlier this year, he questioned the preparedness of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), citing delays in the appointment of new commissioners.  Although the commission has since been reconstituted and is preparing for by-elections in November, Kuria warned that legal and procedural challenges could still affect the 2027 electoral timeline. 

A run-off would introduce new dynamics to Kenya’s election process, requiring candidates to build broader coalitions that cut across regional and ethnic divisions. If no candidate meets the first-round requirements, the top two contenders would proceed to a second round of voting, potentially reshaping alliances and strategies in the final stages of the race.