2027 Polls: What Do Kenyans Want from Raila?

A new survey by TIFA Research shows that Kenyans are divided over Raila Odinga’s political future, with opinions split on whether he should back President William Ruto, return to the opposition, or step down from active politics.

The poll, released on 24 September 2025, highlights differing views on the role Raila should play as the country approaches the 2027 general elections. According to the findings, 32% of respondents support Raila aligning with Ruto’s re-election bid, signalling growing interest in political cooperation. 

In contrast, 23% favour his return to opposition politics with a fresh presidential campaign, showing continued support for his leadership. Another 17% believe he should remain in the opposition but endorse a different candidate, while 14% think he should retire from politics entirely.

The survey results come amid continued scrutiny of the Broad-Based Government (BBG), a coalition formed in March 2025 between Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Raila's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The BBG was established through a memorandum of understanding signed at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre, with the stated goal of addressing national issues such as debt, corruption, and political instability.

Despite its stated aims, public perception of the coalition remains cautious. The same survey shows that 37% of respondents believe the BBG prioritises personal or political interests over the public good. 

An additional 27% feel the coalition weakens democracy by limiting the role of the opposition. Others question its relevance to the country’s development (17%), while some raise concerns about corruption (8%), leadership trust (5%), and potential human rights violations (3%).

The TIFA poll was conducted between 23 August and 3 September 2025, sampling 2,024 respondents across nine regions, including Nairobi, Nyanza, Mt Kenya, and the Coast. Interviews were conducted mainly in Kiswahili, with some in English. The research employed a household-based contact method followed by telephone interviews, and has a margin of error of ±2.17%

President Ruto has defended the coalition as a platform for national unity, stating in a recent address in Nanyuki that no region will be left behind. He argued that a unified political approach is key to unlocking Kenya’s development potential.