Opposition Rift Deepens as Matiang’i and Kalonzo Compete for 2027 Ticket

Kenya's opposition coalition is grappling with intensifying internal divisions as the 2027 general election draws closer, threatening its ability to present a united front against President William Ruto's bid for re-election. 

Despite public pronouncements of solidarity, tensions are rising within the multi-party alliance, potentially undermining its electoral strategy. At the heart of the discord lies a power struggle among key figures and parties, all ostensibly united in their aim to unseat Ruto. The coalition includes Rigathi Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper, Martha Karua's People's Liberation Party (PLP), Eugene Wamalwa's Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), Justin Muturi's Democratic Party (DP), and the Jubilee Party, currently led by former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The most immediate challenge is the selection of a unified presidential candidate. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka have emerged as frontrunners, but their candidacies are exacerbating existing fractures. Kenyatta and Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni are backing Matiang’i, touting his technocratic background and reformist credentials, with Kioni stating that Jubilee intends to put him forward as their presidential candidate.

Matiang’i, however, is attempting to distance himself from the perception of being a political pawn. He recently refuted claims that he is an “Uhuru project,” arguing that his decade-long service in Kenyatta's Cabinet should not be interpreted as political patronage. 

“Why are you not asking if I’m the World Bank’s project? I’ve just come from there,” he quipped.

Matiang’i's association with Jubilee has nonetheless unsettled other factions, particularly Gachagua’s DCP, which is gaining ground in the Mt Kenya region. Gachagua has publicly urged Matiang’i to leave Jubilee and form a new party to negotiate within the coalition. Analysts suggest this is a strategic move to consolidate Mt Kenya's support under the DCP and limit Jubilee's resurgence in the region. Political commentator Professor Macharia Munene observes that while party affiliation is important, regional loyalty and grassroots mobilisation will be crucial. 

“If he is accepted by the people, irrespective of the party, he would still be voted. I don’t think Matiang’i could be a threat to Gachagua in Mt Kenya,” Munene said.

The suggestion that Matiang’i should seek a new political vehicle has ignited debate over the role of party structures in coalition negotiations. Jubilee’s national reach and institutional legacy present a challenge to DCP’s regional strategy, particularly if Matiang’i's candidacy revitalises Jubilee’s presence in Mt Kenya. Kioni has criticised Gachagua’s approach, accusing him of perpetuating a "shareholder" mentality that reduces national leaders to regional kingpins. 

"We would reject any attempt to reduce national leaders to regional kingpins," Kioni asserted, reaffirming Jubilee's commitment to inclusive politics.

Complicating matters further, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who was impeached last year and is currently barred from contesting the presidency unless cleared by the courts, has positioned himself as a potential kingmaker. He maintains that the opposition remains united and has vowed to ensure Ruto’s defeat, even if his own role is limited to brokering alliances. 

“As patriots, we shall do the right thing. We shall put our interests aside for the sake of Kenya,” Gachagua declared during a recent press briefing in Nairobi. 

He also accused the President of deliberately sowing discord within opposition ranks, alleging that Ruto's tactics are aimed at destabilising the coalition from within. Meanwhile, Kalonzo Musyoka’s standing within the coalition has been boosted by cultural overtures aimed at integrating his community into the Gema Cultural Association—a move widely interpreted as an effort to broaden his appeal in Mt Kenya. The ceremony, held at All Saints Cathedral in Nairobi, brought together elders from Kikuyu, Embu, Meru, and other communities, symbolising a strategic alignment ahead of 2027. 

An opposition insider remarked, “Kenya would be more comfortable supporting Kalonzo than any other candidate in the opposition.”

In Western Kenya, the coalition faces another internal rift between DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. Although Natembeya was elected on a DAP-K ticket and is considered Wamalwa’s protégé, he has since emerged as a formidable political force through his grassroots “Tawe Movement.” His growing popularity and vocal criticism of both Kenya Kwanza and opposition figures have reportedly eclipsed Wamalwa’s influence, complicating DAP-K’s role in coalition talks.

Natembeya’s rise has prompted calls for a reconfiguration of DAP-K’s leadership, with some party members advocating for his elevation. Adding to the tension, Kalonzo's allies have recently called for the exclusion of Kioni from coalition negotiations, accusing him of bias. President Ruto, for his part, has dismissed the opposition’s efforts as illegitimate, accusing them of plotting to overthrow his government through violence. 

“Table your agenda and let us meet in 2027,” he declared in Nairobi, warning that any attempt to disrupt his administration would be met with force. 

His remarks have further galvanised the opposition, which insists that its strategy is rooted in democratic contestation, not subversion. Looking ahead, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka reveals that a team is exploring options for Matiang’i to run either on the Jubilee ticket or through a regional party. 

“There are those who feel that Dr Matiang’i needs a recognised party with structures. Then there are those saying serious political players have their parties with regional identity,” Onyonka explained.

Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru, a Gachagua ally, has endorsed the idea of Matiang’i forming a new party, arguing that it would shield him from future political humiliation.