Kindiki, Joho, and Nassir Rally Support in Mombasa as Coast’s Political Stakes Rise

With the 2027 General Election on the horizon, Kenya's Coast region has become a critical area of political contestation, attracting intense interest from various political factions vying for voter support. 

Despite its smaller size compared to traditional power bases such as Mt Kenya and Rift Valley, the Coast, comprising the six counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River, Taita-Taveta, and Lamu, holds considerable strategic importance due to its diverse population, urban centres, and history of fluid political affiliations.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) reported approximately 1.96 million registered voters in the Coast region in 2022, a number projected to increase before the upcoming polls. 

Recognising the region's historical grievances, persistent underdevelopment, and resulting demands for robust representation, leading political figures are escalating their campaigns across the area. Recent weeks saw opposition figures Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka conduct joint rallies in an effort to mobilise support as an alternative to the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Historically influential, ODM is now officially aligned with the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition.

In response to these opposition moves, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki has been engaged in an extensive tour of the Coast, holding town hall meetings and development forums. His itinerary has been notably supported by prominent ODM figures, including Mining and Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho and Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir. This collaboration signals a more unified strategy to solidify government support, capitalizing on Raila Odinga's previous regional support base while promising targeted development for coastal communities.

Historically, the Coast has been a stronghold for Raila in successive elections. His popularity in the 2022 election translated into significant support in Kilifi and Kwale, where he garnered over 70 per cent of the presidential vote, and exceeded 50 per cent in Mombasa, Tana River, Lamu, and Taita-Taveta. Odinga's recent alignment with President William Ruto has, however, reshaped the regional political landscape, positioning ODM in a dual role as both a part of the government and a local political entity.

Addressing attendees at a Women and Youth Empowerment rally in Hola, Prof Kindiki refuted assertions by Gachagua that he lacked political assertiveness, arguing that respect and loyalty were strengths, not weaknesses. Emphasising the importance of peace and dialogue, Kindiki urged young voters to reject divisive rhetoric and engage constructively with state actors. 

"Our future is not in protests and destruction. If something bothers you, come to us. Talk to us as we are here to listen and act, not to fight you," he said.

Kenya Kwanza's campaign strategy in the Coast region has received commendation from local leaders, who suggest the area is finally experiencing tangible benefits from its participation in government. CS Joho, once a vocal critic of past administrations, praised the current government for acknowledging the region's economic potential. He also denounced tribal politics, urging residents to embrace self-determination through strategic engagement with national development frameworks. 

"For once, we (Coast) are in charge of our waters. We are making decisions for ourselves on fisheries, marine trade, and conservation. That is what true devolution is," Joho affirmed.

While leaders like Likoni MP Mishi Mboko have confidently predicted a decline in the opposition's influence in upcoming elections, analysts remain circumspect. Political commentator Kauli Mwatela suggests that ODM's established local networks could ensure continued dominance, assuming the current political momentum is maintained. 

"At the moment, the region can be said to be in government through ODM. It will be difficult for other parties to gain ground," he noted.

Nonetheless, dissenting voices caution against complacency. Former Kwale County Assembly Speaker Sammy Ruwa argued that the Coast's allegiance is not guaranteed, and opposition parties could regain ground through focused outreach and grassroots mobilisation.