Gachagua, Karua, Kalonzo, and Matiang’i Lead Coalition Against Ruto

A coalition of prominent Kenyan politicians convened on Tuesday.

The engagement included former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, ex-Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, and 2022 Azimio running mate Martha Karua, igniting a national debate about the country's political future and the potential for a significant challenge to President William Ruto's administration in the 2027 elections. The coalition's objective is to unify opposition forces against the current government.

The formation of this alliance emerges amidst a backdrop of significant national challenges, including a struggling economy, public discontent evidenced by recent Finance Bill 2024 protests, and endemic corruption draining public resources at both national and county levels. These factors have fueled public demand for practical and lasting solutions, creating a fertile ground for political realignment.

However, the coalition's emergence has been met with scepticism, particularly online, where critics have labelled its members as "the same old" faces from the Kenyan political establishment, and questioned the absence of younger voices. The challenge for this alliance is to convince the public that it offers a credible alternative, given that many of its members were previously integral to what is widely perceived as a flawed system.

According to political analysts, the coalition's success hinges on its ability to present a coherent economic plan and address corruption concerns, rather than solely relying on anti-Ruto rhetoric. It will need to demonstrate a departure from past practices and offer viable solutions to the nation's pressing issues. Within the coalition, several figures bring their own unique backgrounds and challenges

Rigathi Gachagua

Despite his recent impeachment in October 2024 and previous criticisms of ethnic exclusionism, Gachagua has adopted a reformist stance, declaring his commitment to "liberating Kenya." However, his transformation into a vocal critic of the Ruto administration is relatively recent, following a fallout with his former boss, raising questions about his true motives and the sincerity of his reformist stance.

Kalonzo Musyoka

A political veteran from the Daniel Moi era, Kalonzo's long career has been marked by indecisiveness, earning him the nickname "watermelon." He has made multiple attempts at the presidency, often ending up as a running mate, most recently in the Azimio formation. As the 2027 elections approach, it remains to be seen whether he can finally rally support beyond his traditional Ukambani base.

Fred Matiang’i

Matiang’i's tenure as Interior Cabinet Secretary was marked by both efficiency and controversy. His legacy is complicated by unresolved issues such as the Ruaraka land saga and allegations of extrajudicial killings during his time in office.

Martha Karua

While widely considered to have integrity, Karua lacks a proven track record of economic stewardship, and her failure to deliver the Mt Kenya vote in 2022 raises questions about her influence. Other members of the coalition, including Mr. Muturi, Mr. Wamalwa, and Dr. Kituyi, also face their own challenges and criticisms. Mr. Muturi's tenure as National Assembly Speaker was marred by accusations of bias, while Mr. Wamalwa is often seen as living in the shadow of his late brother. Dr. Kituyi has yet to rebuild his political credibility after his 2022 presidential ambitions fizzled out.

The coalition's emergence has been met with scepticism from various quarters. Former Kanu Secretary-General Nick Salat dismisses the group as relics of past regimes, questioning their claims of being liberators. “How are they liberators when they are still the same people who have been part and parcel of successive regimes? These are people suffering from the hangover of state power they now miss,” Salat stated.

Despite these challenges, the coalition has vowed to intensify consultative meetings in the coming weeks and months, signalling a potential consolidation of opposition forces. However, whether this alliance will evolve into a credible political movement or collapse under the weight of its members' controversial pasts remains to be seen. The key to their success will lie in their ability to convince the public that they have truly undergone a transformation and are committed to genuine reform.

Each leader carries significant political baggage, raising questions about their credibility as champions of reform. Mr. Gachagua's impeachment burden, Dr. Matiang’i’s strongman reputation, Mr. Musyoka’s indecisiveness, Ms. Karua’s questionable ground game, and Mr. Muturi’s controversial past as Attorney General are all potential liabilities.