Report: US Workforce to Decline Sharply Under Trump Immigration Policies

A new report warns that the Trump administration’s immigration policies are set to slow US economic growth, reduce the size of the labour force, and significantly increase federal debt over the next decade.

The analysis, published by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), projects that the administration’s approach to both legal and illegal immigration will lower the country’s average annual economic growth rate from 1.8% to 1.3% between fiscal years 2025 and 2035. 

The decline reflects a sharp drop in workforce numbers, with the labour force expected to be smaller by 6.8 million workers by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035. These figures represent a major downward revision of the Congressional Budget Office’s January 2025 baseline forecast.

The NFAP attributes the projected labour shortfall to tighter restrictions on legal immigration and stronger enforcement targeting undocumented migrants. Of the expected 6.8 million fewer workers by 2028, around 2.8 million are linked to legal measures such as the 2025 travel ban, the termination of work authorisation for international students through the Optional Practical Training (OPT) and STEM OPT programmes, and the proposed public charge rule. 

The remaining 4 million are tied to heightened enforcement efforts and deterrence policies aimed at reducing illegal immigration. According to the report, these demographic changes will have wide-reaching economic consequences. The cumulative loss in labour supply is expected to equal roughly 19 million worker years by 2028 and 102 million by 2035. 

This reduced capacity is projected to lower U.S. economic output by $1.9 trillion between 2025 and 2028 and by $12.1 trillion over the full 2025–2035 period. Per person, this equates to losses of $5,612 and $34,369, respectively. The NFAP also warns of serious fiscal impacts. A smaller workforce is expected to result in lower tax revenues, contributing to a sharp rise in federal debt. 

The report estimates an additional $252 billion in federal debt by 2028 and $1.74 trillion by 2035, in 2025 dollars. These figures do not include the cost of expanded border security and immigration enforcement, which are also expected to increase.

This is the first detailed study to outline both the short- and long-term economic effects of the Trump administration’s immigration plans. While the policies have been presented as measures to protect national security and the domestic labour market, the report concludes that they could impose lasting economic costs and reduce the nation’s capacity to sustain long-term growth.