- Add new comment
- 601 views

As National Super Alliance presidential candidate Raila Odinga's legal team started arguing their case in presidential petition on Monday morning, his lawyers questioned the way the IEBC conducted the August 8th election, arguing it was outside the law and therefore should be nullified.

Odinga poked holes on the integrity of the election, saying that Uhuru Kenyatta consistently maintained an 11 per cent lead from the start to the end of the transmission of presidential results, raising alot of questions, with the lawyers arguing it was a statistically impossible.

“The presidential results showed a curious trend in which Mr Kenyatta maintained a consistent 11 per cent difference at each and every stage. If as required by law these results were being streamed randomly, then this was not possible,”Odinga lawyer Otiende Amollo told the court.

Amollo presented that the fact that results were coming in batches made it impossible for IEBC to explain where the results were obtained from.

“It is possible the results were being held somewhere, adjusted and then released into the commission’s system,” Amollo submitted.

The lawyer further argued that results by IEBC were adjusted using a mathematical formula he described as error adjustment formula that controlled a clear line of all the variables, which he said was another statistical impossibility.

“Under the formula all one needs was to know the votes Mr Odinga would garner at any particular time and then you can determine Mr Kenyatta’s votes,".

He said formula y=1.2045x+183546 was used to manipulate the results.

Amolloe further pointed out that an analysis of the results by Nasa revealed 32 fundamental breaches which were grave enough to overturn the re-election of President Kenyatta.

He said a scrutiny of forms 34A submitted to Mr Odinga by the commission are of “dubious authenticity” as they lacked the commission’s stamp, while some of them had been tampered with by the commission on the eve of filing of the presidential petition by Odinga.

“Some of the forms are totally different even through visual layout, which suggests that they may not have been printed collectively by Al Ghurair under its printing contractual agreement with the commission,” he said.

## Comments

@Sokora, the "x" in the formula is Raila's number of votes. Basically they are saying IEBC rightly guessed Raila's number votes and plugged them into the formula to get Uhuru's votes. They are suggesting that no one was voting for Uhuru. But they are also suggesting that Raila rightly got about 7 million votes which is contrary to their narrative that he won. Desperation is what I see here.

Nikubweka unabweka tu na kutupa matusi lakini mtakuliwa. masiku ya mwizi ni ile ile tu-Arobaini

The truth shall set you free.Was Jubilee not expecting that somebody would question the results or did they recruit a novice to fix this election.Whatever is done in the dark will come to the light.

My quantitative skills are wrestling with the meaning of this simple formula. At what point was the formula used or injected? because for

x=1, y=183547.25 !

x=10, y=183558.5 !

.

.

.

x=50000 y=243771 (most likely more than registered voters in many constituencies!)

Another question is, what formula was used where y<x? this one does not work.

Scenario, if y=913607, then x=606111.24 (And x+y will exceed the total registered voters in that constituency)

What do the parameters 1.2045 and 183546 mean? and what data was used to obtain them before the election? it is easy to determine them after the results are in not before!

My take is that this formula is more magical than mathematical to accomplish what it is said to have done.

Numbers do not lie, but statistics, algorithms and regressions formula do lie-

Read Weapons of Math Destruction by Cathy O'Neil.

My friend, don't bother! We are being treated to con-job/intellectual madness presented for the world to see.I get your point- since the formula is linear it should apply at all data points.That means if i take two constituencies (x1,y1) and (x2,y2) totals for the two candidates i should get the "m" slope here given as 1.2045.It also means that at x=0 Uhuru had 183,346 votes the "c" from the linear formula! Get this- that before counting started Uhuru was "awarded" 183,346 that cannot be traced to any constituency- i challenge the NASA bubble heads to demonstrate where/how the 20.45% of extra votes plus additional 183,346 (that is what 1.2045 means) would come from since as you correctly pointed out the sum "x+y=total registered voters" and fixed.No society should be treated to this madness and Kenya is owed an apology by the pin-heads who think we are dummies.My take was the cartoon "math guy" took time shots of results tallies from "citizen tv broadcast" and plotted the "graph"- in short there are three variables: y-Uhuru votes, x-Raila votes and t-time at "citizen tv".Of course at that point you knew Uhuru votes and the clowns votes! It is trivial to "fix a linear graph".What is the shape of the graph between time points? When did this fool start? what is x=0? How do you get "generated" total that match forms 34As? Formula applied the whole country polling stations? Whoever did this deserve jail time!Why should a country use billions listening to a mad man?

Definitely a witch hunt. You have a lawyer arguing a mathematical formula but cannot differential an "x" from the multiplication sign; meaning he does not understand his argument. NASA is cooking but only blowing hot air. Watch video at nation.co.ke