Above-Average Temperatures Expected This February, Kenya Met Says

Kenya is set to experience a prolonged period of hot and largely dry weather over the next four weeks, according to a new forecast from the Kenya Meteorological Department.

The department’s 28-day outlook indicates above-average temperatures across most parts of the country, with rainfall expected to remain limited and unevenly distributed. Only isolated showers are forecast in a few areas, offering little relief from the prevailing heat.

Some counties, including Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kericho, Nakuru and Kiambu, may receive occasional rainfall. However, meteorologists warn that these showers will be sporadic and insufficient to significantly reduce dry conditions. The public has been advised to take precautionary measures, particularly by drinking enough water, as the risk of heat-related illnesses remains high.

Rainfall during the period is expected mainly over the Lake Victoria Basin, the highlands west and east of the Rift Valley, the southern Rift Valley and parts of the south-eastern lowlands. Even in these regions, the rainfall is forecast to be light and short-lived. More consistent rains are expected to begin in March, with April projected to bring the peak of the long rains.

Current weather patterns are being influenced by large-scale climate systems. La Niña conditions, marked by cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, remain in place and are typically associated with reduced rainfall in East Africa. At the same time, a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is suppressing rainfall further, reinforcing the dry spell.

The extended dryness is raising concern among wildlife and environmental authorities. The Kenya Wildlife Service has been advised to increase watering points in national parks and conservancies to reduce the risk of wildfires and limit conflict between wildlife and nearby communities as water sources shrink.

Food security is also a growing concern. Government agencies and humanitarian organisations are under pressure to support vulnerable populations, particularly in pastoralist areas where drought conditions are affecting livestock and household incomes. Reports of undernourished animals in several counties reflect the strain on grazing and water resources.

The dry conditions could also affect electricity supply. Reduced river flows may lower water levels in key catchment areas feeding hydroelectric dams, potentially disrupting power generation and placing additional stress on the national grid.