Kenya’s Political Heavyweights Gear Up for 2027 in Nationwide By-Elections

Kenya's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is gearing up for a series of by-elections across 22 electoral positions.

The mini polls, encompassing six National Assembly seats, one senatorial post, and 15 Member of County Assembly (MCA) vacancies, are viewed as a critical assessment of the political landscape and the IEBC's readiness to conduct free, fair, and credible elections. The by-elections stem from various factors, including the deaths of incumbent legislators, successful legal challenges that nullified previous election results, and the appointment of two Members of Parliament to Cabinet positions. 

The vacancies have left numerous constituencies and wards without representation for an extended period. Following a period of leadership vacuum, the IEBC is now under the stewardship of Chairperson Erastus Ethekon, alongside commissioners Ann Njeri Nderitu, Moses Alutalala Mukhwana, Mary Karen Sorobit, Hassan Noor Hassan, Francis Odhiambo Aduol, and Fahima Arafat Abdallah. 

Ethekon has pledged to address the backlog of electoral matters and assured the public that the IEBC is actively "putting its house in order" and will release a comprehensive statement on pending issues shortly. These by-elections extend beyond simply filling vacant seats, they offer political parties and coalitions a valuable opportunity to evaluate their grassroots support and organisational effectiveness in preparation for the 2027 General Election. 

The political arena is already solidifying with two major alliances taking shape: one faction is spearheaded by President William Ruto and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga, while the other comprises former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, and Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K)'s Eugene Wamalwa.

One of the most anticipated contests is the Baringo Senatorial seat, which became vacant after the death of William Cheptumo (United Democratic Alliance - UDA) in February. Similarly, the Banisa parliamentary seat requires a new representative following the death of Hassan Kullow (United Democratic Movement - UDM) in a road accident. Other significant races include Malava, following the death of MP Malulu Injendi, and Magarini, where the Supreme Court annulled Harrison Kombe’s (ODM) election. 

The Ugunja and Mbeere North constituencies are also in contention due to the Cabinet appointments of Opiyo Wandayi and Geoffrey Ruku, respectively. The Kasipul Constituency presents a particularly sensitive challenge as the seat became vacant after the assassination of MP Charles Ong’ondo Were in Nairobi on 30 April. The IEBC also faces financial constraints, although the Treasury approved Sh788 million for 16 by-elections in the current fiscal year, the commission now requires an additional Sh215.84 million to accommodate the six additional contests. This budgetary deficit has triggered appeals for urgent government intervention to ensure the smooth progression of the polls. Beyond logistical and financial challenges, the by-elections are anticipated to test the political capabilities of Kenya’s leading figures. Analysts suggest that President Ruto’s UDA confronts a considerable challenge in retaining or winning seats, especially in regions where opposition parties have gained momentum. In Mbeere North, the contest pits UDA against the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), led by Rigathi Gachagua. 

Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, a close associate of Kalonzo Musyoka, has predicted a tough road for UDA, asserting that the ruling party will need to exert significant effort to secure victories. Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi echoes these sentiments, saying that the mini polls will serve as a barometer of political popularity. 

"If you are President and the candidate you back loses in a by-election, it points to waning political influence," he noted.

The opposition is positioning itself as a unified alternative to the Kenya Kwanza administration. Speculation exists that Gachagua, Kalonzo, and Wamalwa may field joint candidates in select constituencies to consolidate their support and prevent vote-splitting.