Is Raila Odinga On The Fast Lane To State House Or On A Home Stretch To Political Oblivion?

Nowadays, more people are increasingly accepting and agreeing with those who believe that Raila is a front runner in the race to become Kenya’s Fourth President.  Locally and overseas, political strategists, scholars, and pundits alike are aligned in their notion confirming the formidable force that is Raila Odinga in Kenya’s upcoming elections. One man is particularly over confident.  David W Throup of Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington DC asserts, “Prime Minister Raila Odinga has built up a broad coalition, centered on his Luo ethnic group. Odinga commands the support of 40 to 45 percent of voters, stretching from Lake Victoria to the Indian Ocean and from the isolated Somali-populated Northeastern Province to bustling Nairobi. He is the frontrunner, and neither Kenyatta nor Ruto is capable of effectively challenging his momentum”. This in my view is personal analysis, a declaration based purely on political maneuvers and realignment within the backdrop of the ICC question and the popular theoretical script about Kenya’s present day politics. But of course, there are numerous other issues that will definitely play out to either make or break Raila’s unrelenting quest for the State House.

Back in the days when Kenya was breaking out from the restrictions of dictatorship and one party rule, there has been talk of Raila’s alleged involvement with the botched coup attempt of 1982. Years later, the political establishment that checked Raila’s meteoric political movement and attendant rhetoric, went out of way to depict him as a Soviet proxy with sinister motives operating outside and against Kenya’s national interests and foreign relations. He is acknowledged to have received training as a University student in Leipzig, East Germany - affiliate of former Soviet Union and suspected to be espousing communist doctrine.

More recently, Raila’s tactic and techniques has become a subject of sharp scrutiny. He gets credit as a champion, political nomad known to camp and decamp at will across the political divide. Raila has seen it all – from Ford era to National Democratic Party (NDP), to Kenya National Union (KANU), then lately National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) and now Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Prime Minister Raila, has no known enemies or a permanent friend when it comes to political war-games. Indeed, the recent action pitting him against Miguna Miguna is a good exhibit of this enduring capability. Furthermore, his audacity to infiltrate KANU and later dump it, is a typical and yet a controversial political move at the time. Nonetheless, Kenyans were naïve; they reduced these strategic maneuvers and treated themselves to a metaphoric comedy of biological proposition and philosophy interpreting Raila’s intuitive moves as simply an act where a political party is seen as being swallowed or ingested – NDP or KANU whatever the case might have been.

The 2007 post poll violence and all attendant issues can be considered fundamental political processes that are going to shape Kenya’s future governance. President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga were strange bed fellows in NARC, united to fight a common enemy, the ruling party KANU. But their short lived union was terminated shortly after they achieved their mission and one side reneged on promises stipulated in the famous memorandum of understanding (MOU) effectively sealing their political separation and leading to the birth of ODM and Party of National Unity (PNU), the two red tickets which became the source of carcinogens that caused the cancer we today suffer in the name of Post-election violence (PEV).

Fast forward and we have the ICC question – whose main actors are former and current luminaries of the defunct NARC, ODM, and PNU. I know attempting to apportion blame on the basis of who-did-what is to engage in unproductive circus or even a movie as Mr. Ruto once suggested. One thing is clear though, as Prime Minister Odinga aims for the presidency and President Kibaki prepares to leave for retirement, the two principals will continue to inform the debate surrounding the process of ICC and post-election violence to its conclusive end. Now, how this narrative will work out for Raila’s ticket is uncertain and subject to the range of time; what is clear is that President Kibaki is more concerned with fashioning his legacy aiming to exit the stage and leaving Kenya a United Nation at the end of his term.

The drama is starting to unfold. As you sit back and enjoy the game, consider weighing in your decision seriously as you eventually go to cast the ballot.

By Mohamed Wato. Mohamed is a retired Army Officer and Author of the Book: "Walking a Tight  Rope Amidst Kenya Post Election Violence".

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