Mutahi Ngunyi's Jubilee Win Prediction Buzz

The report published by Kenyan political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi titled Tyranny of Numbers on Tuesday that predicted a Jubilee win in the March 4th elections has been met with a lot of reaction by Kenya over the last two days, including on social media.

In the report, uploaded on Youtube, Mutahi Ngunyi argues that based on the huge numbers of voters registered in regions that are predominantly GEMA and Kalenjin , and given that most Kenyans have in the past tended to vote in tribal blocks, Jubilee is poised for a landslide win in the upcoming elections. His analysis shows the Jubilee Alliance with about 6.2 million votes from the two communities that are according to him almost in the bag followed by the CORD Coalition which comes second with 1.8 million votes (mainly drawn from the Luo and Kamba communities) and the Amani Coalition with 1.7 million votes (mainly drawn from the Luhya community).

That analysis, while being accepted as bitter truth by some Kenyans, has not augured well with others who have accused him of among other things being tribalist and making incorrect assumptions. Some Kenyans have also accused him of deliberately trying to influence voters.

This report has given rise to several new pages on Facebook. One such page, R.I.P Mutahi Ngunyi, has already been "liked" by over 7,200 people and thousands of comments on postings in just the last 2 days. The report has also been a trending topic on Twitter over the last two days with hash tags such as #TyrannyOfNumbers and #MutahiNgunyi.


Here is the video with his analysis:

peter kahura's picture
peter kahura

When the truth on the nos comes you cannot hide it.To win any election in any country is to proof the nos. Based on the nos, Mutahi is right. When Raila's nos comes they cerebrate. Let us also cerebrate while Raila-Kalonzo think how to do this mathematics and get their wining nos. TNA, Continue your peaceful campain, you have the nos.

peter kahura's picture

I think mutahi was on point. If we look back in history, 2005 when there was orange and banana. Raila's team was huge it included Uhuru, Ruto, Musalia, Balala and they all demonized the constitution and at times GEMA community. The church all over the country also joined orange side. GEMA votes was only supported by few sympathizers mostly Luhyas. The results were 58%-42%. Today GEMA vote has full support from Kalenjins & Maasais. Also a bit from Coast and North Eastern. I personally will not be surprised by a first round Jubilee win. It's good that ODM supporters be prepared otherwise they will destroy the country again!!!

peter kahura's picture
Mary Tororeiy

Mutahi Ngunyi has in the past critiqued the Kibaki govt but NO ONE called him tribalist! Now, he shares his opinions concerning Jubillee and he is tribalist? Oh, this time he is a Gikuyu and the Jubilee candidate is a Gikuyu! How about those calling him tribalist are actually the ones being tribalist!!! Kenyan politics is still disheartening at best!

peter kahura's picture
Charles Kangethe

Whilst not condoning it, politics based on tribal loyalties should not surprise anyone in a country with as many diverse peoples as Kenya.

There seems to me to be a few options available to electors and elected in the country.

  1. Prevent through constitutional and legal means executives from the president down from appointing any direct reports from their own tribe. Thus the head of the executive and heads of other government departments cannot deliver political patronage through appointing fellow tribespeople and family.
  2. Ditch the "first past the post" system in favour of proportional voting. This would lead to numerically smaller tribes having a say in political outcomes.
  3. Let's visit it again - Majimbo - a federal structure. A unitary central government works well in a largely homogeneous nation. Perhaps federalism with regional governments responsible for local issues and a national government only responsible for foreign policy, national infrastructure and defence may be a way forward for an ethnically diverse state ?
  4. Forget Western notions of democracy including periodic elections. Develop an African model of government based on "councils of elders". Each tribe to nominate its representative(s) for a set period of time, the implementation of council policies being left to a permanent and professional civil service run by qualified bureaucrats and diplomats.
  5. More of the same as we presently have !
peter kahura's picture

Very interesting that Mutahi should now be branded a kikuyu. When a kikuyu says anything 'positive' about a kikuyu, it is tribalism. When any other kenyan does the same for a person of his tribe, what is that? Naturally ethinicity stays becuase of the perceptions and comments people make. If one realises they are 'hated' so much because of their tribe (which they have no control of) the most natural thing is to support 'their own'.

The leaders are the ones who should show the way by saying ... tosha' like Raila did in 2002. The masses are not the ones who decide. For now, we watch as numbers that Mutahi articulated go as he predicted. God help Kenya on the ethinicity issue. How will it end if our leaders do not tell their people to stop it?

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