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Mutahi Ngunyis Jubilee Win Prediction Buzz

The report published by Kenyan political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi titled Tyranny of Numbers on Tuesday that predicted a Jubilee win in the March 4th elections has been met with a lot of reaction by Kenya over the last two days, including on social media.

In the report, uploaded on Youtube, Mutahi Ngunyi argues that based on the huge numbers of voters registered in regions that are predominantly GEMA and Kalenjin , and given that most Kenyans have in the past tended to vote in tribal blocks, Jubilee is poised for a landslide win in the upcoming elections. His analysis shows the Jubilee Alliance with about 6.2 million votes from the two communities that are according to him almost in the bag followed by the CORD Coalition which comes second with 1.8 million votes (mainly drawn from the Luo and Kamba communities) and the Amani Coalition with 1.7 million votes (mainly drawn from the Luhya community).

That analysis, while being accepted as bitter truth by some Kenyans, has not augured well with others who have accused him of among other things being tribalist and making incorrect assumptions. Some Kenyans have also accused him of deliberately trying to influence voters.

This report has given rise to several new pages on Facebook. One such page, R.I.P Mutahi Ngunyi, has already been liked by over 7,200 people and thousands of comments on postings in just the last 2 days. The report has also been a trending topic on Twitter over the last two days with hash tags such as #TyrannyOfNumbers and #MutahiNgunyi.


Here is the video with his analysis:

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