Raila Leads in the Latest Opinion Poll of Kenya Presidential Candidates

According to a new research carried by Infotrack Harris, Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the most popular candidate if elections are held today.

Raila takes a wide lead of 36.6 per cent followed  by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta at 21.9 per cent, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka at 9.6 per cent,William Ruto 9.4 per cent,  Musalia Mudavadi 8.4 per cent, Martha Karua 5 per cent and Peter Kenneth at 2.3 percent.

The poll was conducted between 14 June and 28 June, two weeks before the launch of the explosive memoir of Raila Odinga’s former aide Miguna Miguna Peeling Back the Mask: A Quest for Justice in Kenya.

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Infotrack Harris Angela Ambitho said Kenyans are still gearing towards electing Prime Minister Raila Odinga as their president.

She said the Premier is commanding 27 out of 47 counties and this may translate to an outright first round win for the PM.

The Kenyan Daily Post

John Kemoli's picture
John Kemoli

How Infotrak selected randomly and interviewed 11,616 respondents who are truly representative of the Kenyan voter in terms of age, gender, socio-economic status, and other important attributes across 47 counties in 9 days, and weighted the sample to account for population dynamics because they could not just interview 247 people per county as that would be nugatory in statistical terms marvels me.

If this really happened, it would be a statistical milestone and it should enter the Guinness Book of Records. What was the sampling error? How did Infotrak iron out coding problems over such a large sample. And are these Registered voters or Likely Voters? Secondly, the poll looked at several things at the same time such as who is leading, who would be the preferred running mate, what do a candidate's supporters favor, who is leading in what county.

This was not just a simple poll. And that makes me doubt this poll. I think polling in Kenya has a long way to go, and this is perhaps worsened by poor record keeping. Does Kenyan have an up to date electoral roster? But at least they tried.

John Kemoli

John Kemoli's picture
joan molaa

I totally agree with you. If you keenly followed the performance of candidates during the debate you will be sure that the polls are not true. The polls were showing a very big gap between the candidates until the true picture was brought out during the party nominations. From that time they changed to show something closer to blind people from the truth.

I have been in Nairobi and have never been interviewed nor any one I know or known to my friends so the question is whom do they interview. It is sad that we have people working so had towards dividing and confusing Kenyans. Advice to Kenyans is we wait for the elections since its just a few days away. Lets try had to maintain calm where-ever we are. We have done enough campaigns it is now time to settle down. We have fought and tasted the fruits of division. If I would want the people supporting another candidate to accept and choose Kenya above our interests, then lets start with ourselves, we prepare to support the person that will win and agree to move on.

It is now time to pray for peace during and after the elections, remembering that though the politicians will divide us and foreign countries interfere Kenya is our nation and its our responsibility to ensure a peaceful co-existence.

John Kemoli's picture
Much appreciation goes to the company fairness contribution in showing the Kenyans the political direction to take a head of general election. Congratulation Odinga for the achievement.
John Kemoli's picture

Raila will win the 1st round. No re-run.

John Kemoli's picture

Most Kenyan voters are there own worst enemies. Raila is leading on most polls close to him are the likes of Uhuru, Ruto and Mudavadi then someone like Peter Kenneth comes last. but according to the National Taxpayers report he is also leading from behind in terms of managing the CDF. This is the best litmus test for leadership and he is leading from behind.

http://www.blog.njiirisjuakalitv.com/top-presidential-candidates-poor-ma... checkout that link for more information. When educated Kenyans will stop voting as the illiterate ones and decide to educate the others on the best leadership, then we will have to change in kenya. Change begins with me. Vote wisely.

Lincoln said: “I am not bound to win, but I am bound to be true. I am not bound to succeed, but I am bound to live by the light that I have. I must stand with anybody that stands right, and stand with him while he is right, and part with him when he goes wrong.”

John Kemoli's picture
vincent woga


John Kemoli's picture

I have always believed in science& scientists. this is all about the truth. Thanks alot to infortrack Harris.

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